4% Rule Calculator
Use our free 4% rule calculator based on the Trinity Study. Find out exactly how much you need to save for FIRE, see your 30-year withdrawal schedule, and plan your safe withdrawal rate.
Required Nest Egg
$1.25M
50,000 / 4% = $1.25M
Years to Reach Goal
16
Years until you reach FI
30-Year Withdrawal Schedule
| Year | Starting Balance | Withdrawn | Growth | Ending Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1.25M | -$50,000 | $84,000 | $1.28M |
| 2 | $1.28M | -$51,500 | $86,275 | $1.32M |
| 3 | $1.32M | -$53,045 | $88,601 | $1.35M |
| 4 | $1.35M | -$54,636 | $90,979 | $1.39M |
| 5 | $1.39M | -$56,275 | $93,408 | $1.43M |
| 6 | $1.43M | -$57,964 | $95,889 | $1.47M |
| 7 | $1.47M | -$59,703 | $98,422 | $1.50M |
| 8 | $1.50M | -$61,494 | $101,007 | $1.54M |
| 9 | $1.54M | -$63,339 | $103,644 | $1.58M |
| 10 | $1.58M | -$65,239 | $106,332 | $1.63M |
| 11 | $1.63M | -$67,196 | $109,072 | $1.67M |
| 12 | $1.67M | -$69,212 | $111,862 | $1.71M |
| 13 | $1.71M | -$71,288 | $114,702 | $1.75M |
| 14 | $1.75M | -$73,427 | $117,591 | $1.80M |
| 15 | $1.80M | -$75,629 | $120,529 | $1.84M |
| 16 | $1.84M | -$77,898 | $123,513 | $1.89M |
| 17 | $1.89M | -$80,235 | $126,542 | $1.93M |
| 18 | $1.93M | -$82,642 | $129,615 | $1.98M |
| 19 | $1.98M | -$85,122 | $132,730 | $2.03M |
| 20 | $2.03M | -$87,675 | $135,884 | $2.08M |
| 21 | $2.08M | -$90,306 | $139,074 | $2.13M |
| 22 | $2.13M | -$93,015 | $142,298 | $2.18M |
| 23 | $2.18M | -$95,805 | $145,553 | $2.22M |
| 24 | $2.22M | -$98,679 | $148,834 | $2.28M |
| 25 | $2.28M | -$101,640 | $152,137 | $2.33M |
| 26 | $2.33M | -$104,689 | $155,459 | $2.38M |
| 27 | $2.38M | -$107,830 | $158,793 | $2.43M |
| 28 | $2.43M | -$111,064 | $162,134 | $2.48M |
| 29 | $2.48M | -$114,396 | $165,475 | $2.53M |
| 30 | $2.53M | -$117,828 | $168,811 | $2.58M |
The 4% Rule: How Much Do You Really Need to Retire?
The 4% rule is the most widely used guideline in the FIRE community for determining how much you need to retire. Originating from the 1998 Trinity Study (and later refined by Bill Bengen), the rule states that if you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement and adjust that amount for inflation each subsequent year, your money has a 95% chance of lasting at least 30 years. The formula: Required Nest Egg = Annual Expenses ÷ 0.04 (or simply Expenses × 25). For example, if you need $50,000/year in retirement, you need $1,250,000 invested. Our free 4% rule calculator above helps you model different withdrawal rates, track your progress, and visualize your 30-year withdrawal schedule.
How to Use This 4% Rule Calculator
- Annual Expenses — How much you expect to spend each year in retirement. Be realistic — include housing, food, healthcare, travel, and a buffer for unexpected costs.
- Withdrawal Rate — Default is 4%. Lower rates (3-3.5%) are safer for early retirement with a 40+ year horizon. Higher rates (5%+) are riskier.
- Current Savings — How much you already have invested toward your FIRE goal.
- Monthly Savings — How much you're adding to your investments each month.
- Expected Return — Your projected annual investment return. 7% (after inflation) is a common baseline.
The calculator shows your required nest egg, current progress as a percentage, estimated years to reach your goal, and a detailed 30-year withdrawal schedule so you can see how your portfolio would perform under different scenarios.
Frequently Asked Questions About the 4% Rule
What is the 4% rule and where did it come from?
The 4% rule comes from the Trinity Study (1998) by three professors at Trinity University. They analyzed historical stock and bond returns from 1926-1995 and found that a portfolio of 50-75% stocks with a 4% initial withdrawal rate (adjusted for inflation each year) had a 95-98% success rate over 30-year retirement periods. Financial advisor Bill Bengen had earlier arrived at a similar 4% figure in 1994, sometimes called the 'Bengen rule.'
Is the 4% rule still safe for early retirement (FIRE)?
The original Trinity Study only tested 30-year periods. For FIRE retirees with 40-60 year horizons, many experts recommend a more conservative 3-3.5% withdrawal rate to account for longer timeframes and potential lower future returns. Some FIRE practitioners use a flexible withdrawal strategy — spending less during market downturns and more during bull markets — rather than rigidly sticking to 4%. Our calculator lets you test different withdrawal rates to see what's comfortable for your situation.
Does the 4% rule account for taxes and fees?
No. The 4% rule assumes pre-tax, pre-fee returns based on historical market indices. In reality, you'll need to account for investment fees (aim for low-cost index funds with <0.1% expense ratios) and taxes on withdrawals from taxable accounts. Tax-advantaged accounts (401k, IRA) have different tax treatments. A good rule of thumb: if you expect to pay 15% in taxes, budget for your expenses ÷ 0.85 to account for the tax drag.
What if I want to use a 3% withdrawal rate instead?
A 3% withdrawal rate is more conservative and increases your success probability for very long retirements (50+ years). The trade-off: you'll need a larger nest egg. At 4%, $50,000/year requires $1,250,000. At 3%, the same $50,000/year requires about $1,667,000 — an extra $417,000. Use our calculator and toggle between 3%, 3.5%, and 4% to see how your required savings and timeline change.
How should I invest my FIRE portfolio for the 4% rule to work?
The Trinity Study assumed a portfolio of 50-75% stocks (S&P 500) and 25-50% bonds. Most FIRE practitioners favor a higher stock allocation (80-100%) for long-term growth, often using low-cost total market index funds like VTSAX or VTI. Some add international diversification. The key principles: keep fees low, stay invested through market cycles, and avoid panic selling during downturns — sequence of returns risk (poor returns in early retirement years) is the biggest threat to the 4% rule.